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Sack Lloyd Carr / Other Colleges Sports / BCS Projections
Author Message
guestfrombc 
Member
# Posted: 24 Nov 2007 21:23


Long Post, just read the parts that interest you. I just want to tell Michigan fans that the way the SEC has shaken up, the Wolverines could get a real interesting bowl match-up.

BCS Title Game
Ohio State v. West Virginia
I've got Oklahoma beating Missouri next week. I also figure WVU beats Pitt next week. No other one loss teams besides Ohio State means that they are probably in.

Rose Bowl
USC v. Georgia
Georgia is probably a top 5 team after Kansas finishes losing tonight and Arizona State's loss to USC on Thursday. They're the most attractive at-large team.

Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma v. Arizona State
I'm almost tempted to throw Illinois into this game. Arizona State has a big drop coming their way and have an honest to god tough game coming up at home against Arizona State. If Boston College gets their third loss next week, the ACC doesn't have two teams in the top 16. The Big East has no shot at getting a second team in. With two losses Arizona State probably has to be in the BCS, but it's an interesting question. If Arizona State or Hawaii lose next week, Illinois is probably playing in a BCS bowl because they're are no other legitimate options left. Illinois might get in anyway.

Sugar Bowl
Tennessee v. Hawaii
LSU has me scared. They're calling card defence has looked awful. Tennessee has a habit of choking away big games and they'll be underdogs in Georgia but right now I like Tennessee more.

Hawaii gets in if they are top 12 (No conference winner, barring a USC or West Virginia loss, will finish lower than 12). I say they jump Texas and Oregon this week to move to 13 (and maybe even Arizona State although probably not), then jump the loser of the ACC title game if they beat Washington. In other words, I'd expect Hawaii to be in the BCS regardless of whether or not LSU loses. If Tennessee beats LSU, Hawaii's in even better shape because 3 loss Tennessee probably doesn't jump 0 loss Hawaii, meaning Hawaii is automatically in with a win.

Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech v. Missouri
Two loss Missouri (with both losses to the Big XII champion) should get the second Big XII birth over the team they're about to finish beating (Kansas).

I like VA Tech over B.C. next week, but regardless the winner goes here, the loser is probably out of the BCS picture entirely.

Michigan's Bowl(Capital One Bowl/Outback Bowl/Alamo Bowl))
The Capital One Bowl has said they are not taking Michigan. However, these game has the potential to be a real fun match-up. If Illinois doesn't get into the BCS, I think the prospect of a Florida-Illinois (Ron Zook v. Replacement) might be too good to pass up but LSU-Michigan (if LSU loses to Tennessee next week) is probably the most attractive non-BCS match-up possible. If it's possible, I both hope and think either the Outback Bowl or the Capital One Bowl pull the trigger. If Illinois sneaks into the BCS (see Fiesta Bowl analysis) and LSU makes the BCS, then would the Capital One Bowl really prefer taking Wisconsin-Florida over Michigan-Florida given last year's national title debate? I'd say the Capital One representatives probably do given their comments, but we'll see. Those comments were probably made with Illinois considered as the probable Big 10 team. We'll see. I'd personally love to see Illinois-Florida in the Capital One Bowl and Michigan-LSU in the Outback Bowl (or vice versa) for the storyline factor alone.

Big House76 
Member
# Posted: 24 Nov 2007 21:26


LSU vs. Michigan would be insanity.

Blue Is Nice 
Member
# Posted: 24 Nov 2007 21:29


LSU vs. Michigan would be insanity.


What if LSU played UM in a bowl and Les comes over before the game. I know its far fetched but that would be very weird.

guestfrombc 
Member
# Posted: 24 Nov 2007 21:42


I hear both of you. Root like hell for Tennessee next week, because if they win, it probably happens. Would Les still be a candidate after a two game losing streak? Even if he was, I can't see him coming over. I think the real question is, does Lloyd still coach that game or does he give one of his coordinators a chance to beat his potential replacement?

LesMilesNextUMCoach 
Member
# Posted: 24 Nov 2007 23:47


I see Illinois making the RB now. Big 10 will draw well, especially for a team that is on the rise (unlike our sorry lot of Wolverines and their 12 losses in 3 years, 6 at home).

Orange Bowl probably takes UGA to play Va Tech.

ASU doesn't draw that well and a home game isn't what the hotels want. If Hawaii gets in, I see Hawaii playing Okie in a re-match of B12 and Mountain West.

Don't count out Kansas, yet. It will be hard to keep them down at 11-1 if Okie beats Mizzou. I expect that they will draw well, too.

BlueGoo 
Member
# Posted: 24 Nov 2007 23:49


You are wrong on OSU in the NC game. I don't see Kansas falling below them. Wait until the polls come out, but Kansas is still stronger than OSU even with the most recent loss, because it came against the top team and their schedule all along was stronger than OSU.

LesMilesNextUMCoach 
Member
# Posted: 24 Nov 2007 23:51


Yes...LSU vs. UM would be very interesting, especially if someone like Kelly or Ferentz is awarded the job because Lloyd doesn't want Miles replacing him.

Don't laugh, I'm beginning to think it won't be Les simply because of the Lloyd-Les rift.

That would be VERY BAD as Les would really have his kids fired up and might want to kick LLLLLoyd one more time while he is down.

guestfrombc 
Member
# Posted: 25 Nov 2007 00:11 Edited by: guestfrombc


Consider this a friendly wager, Bluegoo. Kansas will fall below Ohio State for sure and probably below a couple of the two loss teams as well. Kansas's schedule is not harder than OSU's. Consider that Kansas havsn't beaten a single team that will finish in the top 25 (For that matter, no team even in the receiving votes category in the AP poll). Meanwhile, Ohio State has a conference championship, a road win in thier most important game of the year, a win over #22 Wisconsin, and a marginally good win over Penn State on the road. Ohio State had a soft schedule, but it was nowhere near as soft as the one Kansas played.

LesMilesNextUMCoach - Sorry, I missed your post the first time
I guess we'll find out more about how the backroom dealings actually work. Maybe Hawaii's attractive enough that the Fiesta is ok with losing a Pac-10 team and don't want an actual home team playing, but with the second last pick, I don't see them being willing to take Hawaii instead. We'll find out more about the backroom dealings if this is the option.

Wolvrin704 
Member
# Posted: 25 Nov 2007 06:56


Hpw can the Capital One not take UM when they're contracted to take Big 10 #2?

Lamb 
Member
# Posted: 25 Nov 2007 08:46


Hpw can the Capital One not take UM when they're contracted to take Big 10 #2?

Big Ten #2 means second choice of Big Ten teams, not 2nd place Big Ten team.

gordify 
Member
# Posted: 25 Nov 2007 08:50


I think in a lot of cases for non BCS bowls, the contract only mean they have the option to take that team. Doesn't mean they will or have to. Just gives them first pick.

bigboyBlue 
Member
# Posted: 25 Nov 2007 12:40


Hypothetical scenario, but would it be possible for Georgia to jump OSU in the rankings and play in the NC, if Missouri or WVU falls over the next week? Or LSU for that matter, if they win the SEC Championship? I'm just wondering if pollsters deem a 2-loss SEC team as better than a 1-loss Big10 team.

Of course, it is possible that both WVU (slim) and Missouri lose, in which case OSU and Georgia could play for the NC.

TwoPointConvert 
Member
# Posted: 25 Nov 2007 12:54


You are wrong on OSU in the NC game. I don't see Kansas falling below them.

Yeah. Good call.

Bucks are the biggest OU fans right about now.

Looks like OSU may back into an NC game.

Having said that ... this season is far to unpredictable to assume anything.

gordify 
Member
# Posted: 25 Nov 2007 13:43


You are wrong on OSU in the NC game. I don't see Kansas falling below them.

If by chance that did happen, every Fla. fan better be b!tchin about not being able to play in the NC game if you don't win your conference.

guestfrombc 
Member
# Posted: 25 Nov 2007 14:29


I'll take credit for some of the confusion. Earlier on I was under the impression that Big Ten #2 meant second team in the Big Ten. After perusing the different websites of the bowls and reading other articles, I'm now positive that gordify's view is the correct one.

bigboyBlue
I'd be absolutely shocked if that happened. Ohio State and Georgia are both "in the clubhouse" so to speak and the spread between the two teams is likely to stay similar. Plus, as others have mentioned, one team won their conference with one loss and the other didn't have make their conferences title game. Georgia probably still needs LSU to lose to even finish as the top ranked team in their own conference.

Plus 1 
Member
# Posted: 25 Nov 2007 22:22 Edited by: Plus 1


You are wrong on OSU in the NC game. I don't see Kansas falling below them. Wait until the polls come out, but Kansas is still stronger than OSU even with the most recent loss, because it came against the top team and their schedule all along was stronger than OSU.




BlueGoo

You're goofy !!!!! Kansas did'nt even have either of the 2 best teams in their own conf. on thier schedule, Oklahoma or Texas, and their non-conf. sched. was AWFUL.
Why else would they still be undefeated in the last weeks of the season and still have all those 1 loss teams ahead of them in the BCS ?????? If their schedule was anything at all they would have been ranked #1 long before this.
If undeafeated Kansas's schedule was tougher than OSU's, why were they ranked 15th at 6-0 in week 7, with nine- 1 loss teams and even one -2 loss team in front of them, while OSU was ranked #1, a whole lot of people must have disagreed with you.

Week -13 -Read it and weep, the BCS is OUT and Kansas dropped to 5th, and that was being generous to them, I thought.
The BCS, or the polls, must not agree with you.

Kansas only dropped to 5th because they made a late run at Missouri in the 4th Qrt., and that does'nt say much for Missouri's defense.

Plus 1 
Member
# Posted: 25 Nov 2007 23:05 Edited by: Plus 1


Yeah. Good call.

Bucks are the biggest OU fans right about now.

Looks like OSU may back into an NC game.

Having said that ... this season is far to unpredictable to assume anything.




WRONG !

OSU is'nt backing into anything, that's a stupid statement !
You can only back in, when you "lose" your last game, of the season, and then teams in front of you lose, allowing you to go to the NC with a loss in your last game. That's, "backing in" !
OSU played their 12 games and the others played their 12 games, there's no rule against finishing your season before other teams do. And there certainly is'nt any penalty for it. It's all part of the same season.






bigboyBlue


LSU or Georgia might jump OSU with 2 losses, next week ? You can forget that. If that were the case, then LSU would not have stayed behind OSU for the 6 weeks, going into week 11, LSU would have leap frogged OSU back then, if that were possible, and LSU has'nt exactly "overpowered" anyone lately.

LSU lost in 2 triple overtimes to "Unranked Arkansas, and Kentucky, who is also currently unranked !} Georgia struggled to beat "unranked" Georgia Tech {only 23-17 in 4th qrt.} !
Besides Tennessee is in the SEC title game and Georgia is done playing for the year, same as OSU, BCS points won't change now, wk-13 of BCS is already out, Georgia is 4th.
LSU won't jump 6 places in the final week, even with a rout, which is'nt likely. They have'nt routed anyone lately.

So I doubt that 2 loss LSU or 2 loss Georgia is going to jump OSU, with only 1 loss, by 7 measly points, to a decent Illinois team, or jump WVa. either.

1OSUNUT 
Member
# Posted: 26 Nov 2007 05:32


Ohio State has a pretty firm grip on third place. If Oklahoma win we are in - period. Go Sooners !!!!!!!!!!!!

bigboyBlue 
Member
# Posted: 26 Nov 2007 11:00


Plus 1, your argument is a bit hypocritical; why is a 7-point loss to a unranked Illinois team in regulation better than 2 triple-OT losses to teams led by potential Heisman candidates?

I'm not saying it is reasonable or right, but it will be interesting to see what unfolds. The rumblings have begun on ESPN for a 2-loss team going to the NC. If LSU wins the SEC Championship, watch out for the campaign; they'll say that LSU would be all healthy again by bowl time (they ARE pretty dinged up right now), quality losses, yada yada yada..

tiredoflosing 
Member
# Posted: 26 Nov 2007 11:06


How the Fcuk is Florida in the top 10 with 3 losses? I think the Mafia runs the BCS.

CincoDeMaizo 
Member
# Posted: 26 Nov 2007 11:13


I'm not saying it is reasonable or right, but it will be interesting to see what unfolds. The rumblings have begun on ESPN for a 2-loss team going to the NC.

I think that if Tennessee would have lost to Kentucky and Georgia would have defeated LSU in the SEC title game, there would be a real possibility of Georgia jumping over OSU.

As it stands now, I don't see it happening unless a sandbag effort is undertaken by the SEC coaches, which is always a possibility.

bigboyBlue 
Member
# Posted: 26 Nov 2007 11:15


How the Fcuk is Florida in the top 10 with 3 losses? I think the Mafia runs the BCS.

The top 2-loss, 3-loss and 4-loss team in the polls are from the SEC. Anyone who thinks they don't get their due needs a kick in the nutts.

Plus 1 
Member
# Posted: 26 Nov 2007 18:03 Edited by: Plus 1


Plus 1, your argument is a bit hypocritical; why is a 7-point loss to a unranked Illinois team in regulation better than 2 triple-OT losses to teams led by potential Heisman candidates?

I'm not saying it is reasonable or right, but it will be interesting to see what unfolds. The rumblings have begun on ESPN for a 2-loss team going to the NC. If LSU wins the SEC Championship, watch out for the campaign; they'll say that LSU would be all healthy again by bowl time (they ARE pretty dinged up right now), quality losses, yada yada yada..





Illinois is currently ranked {#15}, and both Arkansas & Kentucky are still "unranked", SO taking in the whole body of work and the week 13 rankings, {plus Arkansas being "Unranked at the end of the season, when the knocked off LSU"}, Illinois is a better quality opponent. I also believe Illinois would beat either Arkansas or Kentucky if they played right now.
Finally with the talent LSU has, how do you allow yourself to go to 3 OT's with a 4 loss, "Unranked" team, in the first place, when the "WHOLE country is bragging on how "GREAT YOU ARE" !!!!!


Georgia with 2 losses has no chance, because they did'nt win their conf. LSU could possibly be in by winning the SEC, but only if WVa & Missouri lose, then I believe LSU would "leap frog" an idle #4 Georgia.
Va Tech could'nt because LSU beat them bad, head to head. USC's too far out.
Kansas, won't make it because they did'nt even play a team in the "others receiving votes" catagory, this year, let alone any top 25 teams. Except Missouri, who they lost to.

 

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